FMR CASE STUDY · INFECTIOUS DISEASE · FRANCE
Estimating the potential of a new HIV treatment
How can a team understand where a new antiretroviral option could fit into an established treatment pathway, which patients might be suitable and which existing treatments could lose share?
The business decision
A new treatment proposition needed an evidence-based opportunity assessment: which patient profiles would be eligible, how physicians might prescribe within the existing algorithm, and what would drive competitive gain or loss.
Evidence used
The project used a mixed telephone and online survey with 56 physicians treating HIV in France, supported by 333 previously treated patient cases described by those physicians. The work examined current treatment algorithms, a proposed product profile and prescribing choices across relevant cases.
What the study established
The study mapped treatment practices, assessed the proposed therapy’s strengths and weaknesses relative to other options, estimated potential and explored which treatments might lose share. It identified relevant eligible and non-eligible patient profiles and the possible position of the offer within the treatment algorithm.
Why it matters strategically
These findings provide a structured basis for assessing addressable opportunity, target patient segments and positioning hypotheses. They help decision-makers scrutinise the potential of a proposed offer rather than relying on headline prevalence or market size alone.
Decisions the evidence can inform
Opportunity sizing and qualification; assessment of patient-fit and competitive dynamics; and positioning priorities for further evaluation. The 2023 source document does not establish a subsequent launch decision, commercial outcome or measured sales uplift, so none is claimed here.
How FMR approaches similar decisions
We combine therapeutic-area knowledge, relevant clinician and patient evidence, competitor understanding and commercial interpretation to make the implications clear for each client’s business context.
Facing a similar market question?
We can help assess the opportunity, test strategic assumptions and define what evidence is needed before a major investment decision.